Currently, countries around the world are actively deploying new energy vehicle strategies, particularly in policy design and departmental coordination, which are worth considering and learning from. Electric vehicles will fundamentally change the power and energy supply systems of fuel vehicles by replacing key components such as engines and transmissions with batteries and electric drive systems. Therefore, the electrification technology of automobiles, as a disruptive or alternative technology, has become a strategic consensus among countries and automobile manufacturers around the world. Similar alternative technologies have appeared multiple times in history, such as hydraulic excavation technology replacing mechanical excavation technology, LCD flat panel display technology replacing traditional CRT (cathode ray tube) technology, and digital photography replacing film.
It should be pointed out that disruptive technologies often cater to the needs of low-end customers or edge markets with their simplicity, convenience, and low cost. In the early stages of development, disruptive technologies do not compete with mainstream market competitors for users, but focus on establishing themselves in new niche or edge markets. By continuously improving product performance, gradually attracting customers from the mainstream market.
Research shows that industries dominated by new technologies can be roughly divided into four stages of development: embryonic stage, introduction stage, rapid development stage, and mature stage. Among them, in the early stages of development, the most important thing is to give new technologies market opportunities and enable them to obtain continuous improvement opportunities in segmented markets. Most developed countries follow this rule. As stipulated by the Federal Communications Commission in the early 1990s, the Internet is a new thing. Too much regulation will kill the new thing and establish several basic principles, including minimum interference, technology neutrality, etc. This has laid a solid foundation for the leading position of the United States in the Internet field today. The development of new energy vehicles has also received strong support from governments around the world. The United States implements a self certification system for both low-speed electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles, which allows small pure electric vehicles to enter the US market more smoothly. In the European Union and Japan, they have lowered the technical requirements for low-speed vehicles in terms of passive safety such as collision protection, and subdivided low-speed electric vehicles into two categories: light and heavy, with different requirements depending on the situation. Seoul, South Korea began allowing low-speed electric vehicles to be tested in 25 designated areas in April 2010, and exempted from tolls during peak traffic hours. At the same time, Seoul's short distance official vehicles will gradually be replaced with low-speed electric vehicles. It is worth noting that in the early stages of emerging technology development, higher standards are not necessarily better. In foreign countries, electric vehicles are generally divided into high-speed electric vehicles and low-speed electric vehicles based on a speed range of 50 kilometers per hour to 70 kilometers per hour. There is a misconception in our country that 'pure electric vehicles should be made in the mid-range or above'. However, due to the immature battery technology at the current stage, even if the government provides high subsidies, rational consumers will still not choose to purchase. At the same time, we have imposed market access restrictions on small low-speed electric vehicles, which actually artificially creates obstacles for the development of new energy vehicles. In fact, China's new energy vehicles are in a transitional stage from the embryonic stage to the introduction stage. Moderately opening up market access, doing a good job in regulation and guidance, and allowing new products and technologies to compete fully should become a consensus in policy-making. Continuing to restrict market access with high standards and thresholds may lead us to miss the best opportunity for the development of the electric vehicle industry.
Furthermore, in order for emerging industries, including new energy vehicles, to achieve development, they need to expand deeply in multiple aspects:
Firstly, establish innovative strategic thinking. The first step in developing a revolutionary and disruptive new technology is to establish an innovative strategic thinking perspective. Automakers are gradually realizing that electric vehicles will become a "game changing" milestone in the history of the automotive industry, but it is currently difficult to predict who will become the leader in this industry chain in the future, whether it will be vehicle manufacturers, battery manufacturers, power companies, or providers of new business models. After all, this involves comprehensive factors such as profit models, business models, and sources of core competitiveness in the industry. What the government needs to do is to create a favorable environment for multiple technologies to "compete", and finally let the market select the most suitable technology, although the most suitable does not necessarily mean the most "advanced".
Secondly, adopt stimulus measures to promote industrial development. One is to encourage the diversification of technology and products, and provide segmented markets for new technologies. In response to the development needs of the Chinese market, establish standards and regulations for electric vehicles, relax market access, guide technological diversification, product diversification, and business model diversification, and create an innovative and friendly market environment. The second is to formulate government procurement plans and establish a stable domestic market. In the context of globalization, the large-scale domestic market remains an important "springboard" for enterprises to seek entry into new industries or seize new opportunities. The third is to promote the synchronous development of new energy vehicles and smart grids. After the large-scale development of electric vehicles, there will be a significant problem of phasing out batteries, which is a topic that must be planned in advance. In fact, even when large-sized batteries cannot provide power services for cars, they still retain 80% of their energy storage. It can provide reliable backup energy storage facilities for infrastructure such as buildings, and also allow car buyers to recover part of the battery cost through transfer.
In short, the global automotive industry is undergoing a strategic transformation, and the next 5 to 10 years will be the golden period for the development of new energy vehicles. China has certain market advantages and technological foundations. If we can seize this historic opportunity, it will have a direct impact on the development of strategic emerging industries and the transformation and upgrading of economic structure.
(The author is Vice Dean of the China Academy of Science and Technology Management and Vice Dean of the School of Economics and Management at Tongji University. Dr. Su Yiyi also made important contributions to this article.)